POLITICS: POLITICAL PARTIES: REPUBLICAN PARTY, TEA PARTY : INDUSTRIES: PETROLEUM : LIBERTARIANISM : RACISM : BIGOTRY : EXTREMISM : HATE GROUPS : INTOLERANCE : DONALD TRUMP : BLATANT FALSEHOODS: SERIAL LIARS : REPUBLICAN WAR ON WOMEN : RAPE CULTURE : SEXISM: Prediction of Climate Change Impacts Not as “Limited” as Tillerson Suggests

 

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ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE :

ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL :

ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE CHANGE DECEIT :

POLITICS: POLITICAL PARTIES: REPUBLICAN PARTY, TEA PARTY :

INDUSTRIES: PETROLEUM :

LIBERTARIANISM :

RACISM :

BIGOTRY :

EXTREMISM :

HATE GROUPS :

INTOLERANCE :

DONALD TRUMP :

BLATANT FALSEHOODS :

SERIAL LIARS :

REPUBLICAN WAR ON WOMEN :

RAPE CULTURE :

SEXISM:

Prediction of Climate Change Impacts Not as “Limited”
as Tillerson Suggests

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Prediction of Climate Change Impacts Not as “Limited”
as Tillerson Suggests

Trumps nominee for Secretary of State falls back on subjective language to skirt science

By Vanessa Schipani

January 13, 2017

Scientific American

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/prediction-
of-climate-change-impacts-not-as-limited-as-tillerson-suggests/

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A shorter URL for the above link:

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http://tinyurl.com/glof9jv

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During his confirmation hearing for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson said our ability to predict the effect of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere is very limited. Thats not entirely accurate.

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While very limited is subjective, scientists have differing degrees of confidence when attributing different phenomena to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

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For example, scientists are nearly certain that increased CO2 levels from the burning of fossil fuels have caused over half of the global temperature increase since 1950. Theyre also relatively certain that global warming will lead to a rise in extreme heat waves and sea levels. But they are less certain when linking global warming to increased incidences of wildfires.

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Tillerson, the recently retired chairman and chief executive officer of ExxonMobil, is President-elect Donald Trumps choice for secretary of state. While testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 11, Tillerson acknowledged that climate change is real, saying that the risk of climate change does exist, and that the consequences of it could be serious enough that action should be taken.

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But he added that, The type of action seems to be where the largest areas of debate exist in the public discourse. He then went on to question scientists ability to predict the effects of increased greenhouse gas levels.

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Scientists ability to make predictions based on a particular theory corresponds to the number of times theyve verified that theory using different lines of evidence: The more verification, the more likely it is that their predictions will turn out to be accurate.

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To start, scientists have verified the theory of the greenhouse effect, which says that gases like CO2 trap the suns heat, time and again since the physicist Joseph Fourier first proposed it in 1824.

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In fact, Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State told us last February that things as basic as the design of heat-seeking missiles rely upon an understanding of the greenhouse effect.

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In short, scientists are nearly certain that increased CO2 levels from the burning of fossil fuels will lead to a warmer earth. This is no longer a matter of prediction.

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As we have written before, the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes fifth assessment report that was released in 2013 concluded that it is extremely likely that more than half of the observed temperature increase since 1950 is due to human activities.

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Scientists also have high confidence that global warming will lead to changes in the climate, including a rise in extreme weather events and sea levels. This is also no longer a matter of prediction.

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Take sea level rise: Hundreds of scientists who collaborated on the U.S. Global Change Research Programs 2016 report have very high confidence that global sea level has risen during the past century, estimating about eight inches since 1880. Their evidence comes from 130 years of tide gauge records and 20 years of satellite observations.

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The authors also have medium confidence that global sea level rise will be in the range of 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

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The complete article may be read at the URL above.

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Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
(215) 204 – 4584
jwne@temple.edu
http://workface.com/e/daviddillard

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