[Environment] DATABASE SEARCH RESULTS : DISASTERS: FLOODS : UNITED STATES: STATES: LOUISIANA : ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE : WARNINGS: ‘They Didn’t Warn You’: Louisiana Disaster Reveals Deep Challenges in Flood Communication

 

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DATABASE SEARCH RESULTS :

DISASTERS: FLOODS :

UNITED STATES: STATES: LOUISIANA :

ENVIRONMENT: GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE :

WARNINGS:

‘They Didn’t Warn You’:
Louisiana  Disaster Reveals Deep Challenges in Flood Communication

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‘They Didn’t Warn You’:
Louisiana  Disaster Reveals Deep Challenges in Flood Communication

By Jason Samenow

August 18, 2016

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/
wp/2016/08/18/they-didnt-warn-you-louisiana-disaster-reveals-
deep-challenges-in-flood-communication/

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A shorter URL for the above link:

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http://tinyurl.com/gks92ma

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Had a hurricane barreled toward the Gulf Coast this past weekend, news organizations would have covered the impending doom nonstop. Correspondents would have lined the coast while ominous satellite pictures of the monster storm cycled across television screens.

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But a no-name storm, every bit as dangerous in certain respects, commanded scant media attention.

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Yet the Red Cross is calling this nameless storm the nations worst natural disaster since Hurricane Sandy. At least 40,000 homes have been damaged, and the death toll has risen to 13.

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[They survived Hurricane Katrina and rebuilt in Baton Rouge. Now theyve lost everything again.]

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Some Louisiana residents said they were completely caught off guard by the severity of this extreme event.

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With a hurricane, they kind of warn you. But this, they didnt warn you, Jayda Guidry, a resident forced from her home, told The Washington Post. We just thought it was raining.

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snip

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Graham shared a timeline that convincingly illustrates watches and warnings were provided for this event with ample lead time. Flood watches were issued Tuesday and Wednesday, emergency managers were briefed, and on Thursday and Friday, the watches were upgraded to warnings.

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We began communicating the threat for southeast Louisiana five days in advance of this event, using strong language and leveraging the resources of social media and our partners in local media and government to communicate threats to the public, Graham said.

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snip

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Broadcast meteorologists also talked up the rain threat. For example, Rob Perillo, the chief meteorologist at KATC, the ABC affiliate in Lafayette, predicted last Thursday excessive rainfall in his market, with amounts up to 15 inches, before the rain began. I am not liking this setup  could be the biggest tropical rainmaker we see all season long, he warned. Be ready.

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While forecasters accurately conveyed the overall flood risk and issued timely warnings, the event was more extreme than predicted in some respects.

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The general stage was set for very heavy rainfall, and this was recognized and predicted well in advance, said Russ Schumacher, a professor of meteorology at Colorado State University who specializes in flood events. But we still arent at a place where the rainfall forecasts are accurate and precise enough to say exactly where the heaviest rain is going to fall, or how much. And as a result, the forecasts of the flooding arent going to be accurate or precise enough to, for example, call for evacuations.

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Graham said the Weather Service is hard at work to advance the science and touted the launch of a new national water model. As the model evolves, it will give us neighborhood-level flood forecast maps for communities throughout the country, he said. This means that for the first time, well be able to visually depict simulations of how the smallest streams and creeks will react to large rain events, giving people a picture of what that 20-inch rainfall forecast will look like at their doorstep.

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The model Graham describes may help forecasters visualize and communicate a pending flood, but only if they deem the model trustworthy.

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The complete article may be read at the URL above.

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DATABASE SEARCH RESULTS : LOUISIANA FLOODS

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