[public-health] MEDICAL: DISEASES: ZIKA VIRUS : COUNTRIES: UNITED STATES: There’s Probably Way More Zika in the United States Than Has Been Counted

 

.

.

MEDICAL: DISEASES: ZIKA VIRUS :

COUNTRIES: UNITED STATES:

There’s Probably Way More Zika in the United States Than Has Been Counted

.

.

There’s Probably Way More Zika in the United States Than Has Been Counted

New computer modeling suggests the virus has been underestimated by tens of thousands of cases.

ADRIENNE LAFRANCE

The Atlantic

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/08/ more-zika-than-anybody-thought/494201/

.

A shorter URL for the above link:

.

http://tinyurl.com/jhfr7m8

.

.

Try as they might, public-health officials cant really track the Zika virus in real time. There is inevitably a lag between how a disease spreads and when the public finds out about it.

.

Even in Miami, where new updates are being issued every weekday, theres only so much officials know about how quickly and widely Zika is traveling through the population.

.

Then there are the unknowns that are harder to pin down: How many cases of Zika are going uncounted? It turns out, that number may be enormous.

.

Researchers at Northeastern University say federal-health officials are likely vastly undercounting Zika in the United States. In a paper thats still under review for journal publication, they describe computer modeling that suggests there were nearly 30,000 cases of travel-related Zika in the country in mid-June, about 25 times more cases than the 1,200 or so reported by the CDC at the time.

.

Researchers found the undercounting occurred in at least nine states: Florida, California, Texas, Georgia, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Oregon.

.

CDC is doing a great job, but it is really hard to detect cases, said Alessandro Vespignani, one of the authors of the paper. The federal agency is faced with an exceedingly difficult task, in part because it is cobbling together data from various monitoring systems in different states and jurisdictions. The nature of the virus presents additional challenges, making it more complicated to track than other epidemics. You have to ingest much more data and deal with another level of complexity as well as other sources of uncertainties, Vespignani said.

.

Because Zika is transmitted by mosquitoes (as well as spread between humans), researchers trying to model or predict its path have to take into consideration the presence of certain mosquito species, mosquito populations in different areas, that populations variability with weather conditions, and so on. (Northeasterns computer model does not take sexual transmission of Zika into consideration, even though its one of the ways the virus is transmitted.)

.

Vespignani and his colleagues also used their model to predict how Zika will continue to move through the Americas through the end of 2016, based on how it has spread globally since 2013. (They also took into account the rate of transmission of Dengue in various regions, since that virus has much in common with Zika.)

.

The modeling suggests that while the Zika epidemic has already peaked in Brazil, the number of cases is still growing rapidly in Puerto Rico, and will continue to climb well into the fall. And while the researchers say their findings should be interpreted cautiously, given the complexity of the modeling, they believe their projections offer important indications of the magnitude and timing of the epidemic as it progresses.

.

.

The complete article may be read at the URL above.

.

.

Sincerely,
David Dillard
Temple University
(215) 204 – 4584
jwne@temple.edu
http://workface.com/e/daviddillard

Net-Gold
https://groups.io/g/Net-Gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/net-gold
http://listserv.temple.edu/archives/net-gold.html
https://groups.io/org/groupsio/Net-Gold/archives
http://net-gold.3172864.n2.nabble.com/

Temple University and Google Sites Research Guides
AND Discussion Group Directory
http://tinyurl.com/ngda2hk

OR

https://sites.google.com/site/researchguidesonsites/

RESEARCH PAPER WRITING
http://guides.temple.edu/research-papers
EMPLOYMENT
http://guides.temple.edu/employment-guide
INTERNSHIPS
http://guides.temple.edu/employment-internships
HOSPITALITY
http://guides.temple.edu/hospitality-guide
DISABILITIES AND EMPLOYMENT
http://guides.temple.edu/c.php?g=134557
INDOOR GARDENING
https://groups.io/g/indoor-gardening
Educator-Gold
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Educator-Gold/
K12ADMINLIFE
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/K12AdminLIFE/

PUBLIC HEALTH RESOURCES INCLUDING EBOLA
http://guides.temple.edu/public-health-guide

STATISTICS SOURCES RESEARCH GUIDE
http://guides.temple.edu/statistics-sources

Social Work and Social Issues Discussion Group
https://groups.io/g/social-work

Tourism Discussion Group
https://groups.io/g/Tourism

Digital Scholarship Discussion Group
https://groups.io/g/DigitalScholarship/threads
https://listserv.temple.edu/cgi-bin/wa?A0=DIGITAL-SCHOLARSHIP
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/digital-scholarship/info
https://digitalscholarshipandscholarlypublication.wordpress.com/

Copyright Research Guide
Copyright, Intellectual Property and Plagiarism Sources
http://guides.temple.edu/copyright-plagiarism
Fair Use
http://guides.temple.edu/fair-use

Blog
https://educatorgold.wordpress.com/

Articles by David Dillard
https://sites.google.com/site/daviddillardsarticles/

Information Literacy (Russell Conwell Guide)
http://tinyurl.com/78a4shn

Nina Dillard’s Photographs on Net-Gold
http://www.flickr.com/photos/neemers/

Twitter: davidpdillard

Temple University Site Map
https://sites.google.com/site/templeunivsitemap/home

Bushell, R. & Sheldon, P. (eds),
Wellness and Tourism: Mind, Body, Spirit,
Place, New York: Cognizant Communication Books.
Wellness Tourism: Bibliographic and Webliographic Essay
David P. Dillard
http://tinyurl.com/o4pn4o9

Rail Transportation
https://groups.io/org/groupsio/RailTransportation

INDOOR GARDENING
Improve Your Chances for Indoor Gardening Success
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/IndoorGardeningUrban/

SPORT-MED
https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/lists/sport-med.html
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sports-med/
http://listserv.temple.edu/archives/sport-med.html

HEALTH DIET FITNESS RECREATION SPORTS TOURISM
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/healthrecsport/info
http://listserv.temple.edu/archives/health-recreation-sports-tourism.html

.

.

Please Ignore All Links to JIGLU
in search results for Net-Gold and related lists.
The Net-Gold relationship with JIGLU has
been terminated by JIGLU and these are dead links.
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Net-Gold/message/30664
http://health.groups.yahoo.com/group/healthrecsport/message/145
Temple University Listserv Alert :
Years 2009 and 2010 Eliminated from Archives
https://sites.google.com/site/templeuniversitylistservalert/

.

.

.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

.

.

.

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

View This Message (#71):

https://groups.io/g/public-health/message/71

.

.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s